Figure 5

One-year-ahead forecast AUC for various models. To compute the forecast AUC, we use the parameters estimated by modeling N^t−1 based on$N^{t_{0-1},t-2}$ to forecast N^t based on$N^{t_0,t-1}$. The “Best” model is the one that has had the highest average predictive log score up to t. “Memory 1” only has a memory effect from the previous year and an edges term. The “Memory 5” model only has a memory effect from the previous 5 years and an edges effect.