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Figure 6 | Security Informatics

Figure 6

From: Forecasting the locational dynamics of transnational terrorism: a network analytic approach

Figure 6

Forecasted probabilities for edges that experience attacks and those that do not experience attacks. Forecasted probabilities for edges that experience attacks and those that do not experience attacks. Π ̄ is the mean forecast probability in the respective year. The probability of an attack from one location to another in year t is computed with the TERGM estimates from the model that, in terms of predictive log score, most accurately predicted Nt−1 from N t 0 1 , t 2 . In the interest of clarity, the y-axis is depicted on the log scale. Box plots depict the distribution of Π among those directed dyads that experienced an attack in t.

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