Forecasting the locational dynamics of transnational terrorism: a network analytic approach

Security Informatics

Table 2 Predictive model for 2001

δ	t ₀	θ	δ %tile*
PrevAttack	1996	1.64	0
Flow	1996	0.027	99.99
CAttacker	1996	0.24	98.46
AASim	2000	0.5	0
SameComm	2000	0.441	0
Distance	1996	4.07	98.89

^*δ %tile is the Percentile rank of δ(S A,U S). The model used to predict the network in 2001. This is the model that best predicted the network in 2000 based on the θ estimated on the 1999 network. The θ in this table were estimated on the 2000 network. The percentile rank is based on a comparison with all of the other predictive scores (i.e., δ) of the other directed pairs of countries for which 2001 predictive scores are computed. The t₀ denote the beginning of the interval on which the predicting network is defined for that statistic, with all predictive network intervals ending in 2000.