Applying machine learning to criminology: semi-parametric spatial-demographic Bayesian regression

Security Informatics

Table 2 Error statistics for the models for different crime types [DV-related assaults, Burglaries, and Motor-Vehicle-Theft (MVT)] for the period 2009–2013

	RMSE log crime rate		RMSE crime count		% within CI		Correlation Pred/Obs
	Train	Test	Train	Test	Train	Test	Train	Test
DV	0.314	0.318	92.1	88.4	94	98	0.86	0.85
Burglaries	0.301	0.350	191.5	208.0	90	90	0.84	0.72
MVT	0.345	0.372	191.7	191.3	89	88	0.78	0.66

Root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) over log crime rate, crime counts, percentage of locations within the 95% Credible Interval (CI) and correlation between predicted and observed values