Applying machine learning to criminology: semi-parametric spatial-demographic Bayesian regression

Security Informatics

Table 4 Burglaries inference—summary statistics for regression parameters for burglaries between 2009 and 2013

Parameter	Posterior mean	Posterior SD	95% Credible Interval
Percentage of unemployment	1.19	0.15	[0.89, 1.49]
Percentage of people Cert 1 or 2	0.98	0.12	[0.73, 1.21]
Percentage of separated males	0.83	0.11	[0.62, 1.05]
Population density	0.72	0.14	[0.46, 1.01]
Percentage of English speaking only	0.45	0.17	[0.13, 0.80]
Median total household income	0.24	0.20	[− 0.17, 0.62]
Percentage of people with no religion	0.07	0.11	[− 0.14, 0.28]
Median mortgage monthly repay	0.05	0.29	[− 0.54, 0.64]
Number of families with lone parent	− 0.23	0.16	[− 0.55, 0.06]
Median age	− 0.32	0.14	[− 0.63, − 0.05]
Median rent	− 0.63	0.25	[− 1.12, − 0.12]
Percentage of immigrants	− 0.82	0.17	[− 1.15, − 0.47]

The table shows the regression coefficient’s posterior mean, SD and 95% credible intervals. Rows are sorted based on descending posterior mean