Applying machine learning to criminology: semi-parametric spatial-demographic Bayesian regression

Security Informatics

Table 5 Motor vehicle theft (MVT) inference—summary statistics for regression parameters for MVTs between 2009 and 2013

Parameter	Posterior mean	Posterior SD	95% Credible Interval
Population density	1.81	0.15	[1.52, 2.10]
Percentage of separated males	1.29	0.11	[1.06, 1.51]
Percentage of people Cert 1 or 2	0.78	0.13	[0.52, 1.02]
Median rent	0.70	0.27	[0.14, 1.22]
Percentage of unemployment	0.39	0.16	[0.09, 0.72]
Percentage of English speaking only	0.21	0.17	[− 0.10, 0.56]
Percentage of people with no religion	0.19	0.11	[− 0.01, 0.42]
Median mortgage monthly repay	0.16	0.32	[− 0.50, 0.79]
Number of families with lone parent	− 0.42	0.16	[− 0.73, − 0.10]
Median total household income	− 0.47	0.21	[− 0.87, − 0.05]
Median age	− 0.98	0.15	[− 1.27, − 0.69]
Percentage of immigrants	− 1.20	0.18	[− 1.54, − 0.84]

The table shows the regression coefficient’s posterior mean, SD and 95% credible intervals. Rows are sorted based on descending posterior mean